A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
