Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average count of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that homicide numbers might not point to better national security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

However, security experts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true given the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.