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Amid the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.